The one-page position

Every count below starts from the official results for 2012, 2017 and 2022 across all 403 constituencies. Some groupings (core base, structural strength, leakage, confidence) are readings from the earlier analysis engine, carried forward and marked EARLIER ANALYSIS, not fresh measurements. Nothing here predicts a winner. Where a number is an estimate or depends on an assumption you supply, it says so on the face of it.

Facts, counts and lists are computed from the 403 constituency records on the spot — worked out from the data, not guessed, and marked From the verified record. Questions that need judgement (why, what to do, strategy, caste combinations) or the latest news are answered by the AI engines from this project's own data and the reviewed news desk, and are marked AI analysis or Reviewed news.

Daily Intelligence Brief & Live Desk

News reviewed by the AI engine before it is shown.

LIVE DESK

Scheduled: 06:00 IST

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Rival parties — what they are doing

AI-reviewed news about other parties; summaries are AI-written.

RIVAL WIRE

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Each question is answered from the data on screen. Selecting one filters the map and writes the answer in words below.

Strongest ground

Constituencies where BSP's own vote has held up best against the party's statewide fall.

Where BSP decided the result without winning

BSP's 2022 vote was larger than the gap between the winner and the runner-up.

Uttar Pradesh

Structural strength

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Select any seat for full dossier · Double-click to zoom district

Every constituency currently on the map, as a table

Assumed BSP statewide share 12.9%

📺 ABP News & News24

Ground & Show Analysis

Constituency-level analysis from ABP's Vishal Vishleshan and district public opinion from News24's Mahaul Kya Hai.

Seats Covered

104 / 403

Districts Covered

9 / 75

ℹ️ Claims made by the shows, not verified by UP403. Numbers are checked against official 2022 results where possible.

District:

Party Mentioned:

Who stands, who returns, who crosses over

Built from the constituency candidate archive for 2012, 2017 and 2022 — every candidate, their party, their result, whether they had held a seat before, and whether they had come across from another party. Every BSP candidate change between consecutive elections is measured here.

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Prospective Leaders & Strategic Talent Registry

1,239 Leaders

4-Tier comprehensive political intelligence across State Leadership (84), 18 Mandals (Divisions), 75 Districts, and 403 Assembly Constituencies. Complete with ECI affidavits, criminal case records, asset disclosures, and 2027 coalition viability.

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Does changing the candidate change the vote?

Strong ground where BSP has changed its candidate every time

BSP fielded a different person at all three elections in these constituencies, and never went back to anyone. Listed strongest first, so the top of this list is where the party has the most to hold and the least continuity holding it.

Repeat winners

People who have won the same constituency more than once since 2012, whatever their party.

Candidates who changed party

Every candidate flagged in the archive as having contested under a different banner from the one they last stood for, with what happened to them. Searchable and sortable.

What this section cannot tell you

Candidate caste — what is known, what is not

The assembly as elected

The line this register does not cross

The per-seat register

One row per candidate entry — each constituency's 2022 winner, BSP's candidate and other main candidates. Every entry carries its evidence tier and where it came from.

How firm each entry is

What actual voter surveys show

BSP's 2022 candidates by community: how they performed, not how anyone voted

Districts & Regional Intelligence Hub

Comprehensive leadership dossiers for all 75 Districts across 18 Administrative Divisions with rolled-up caste arithmetic, priority tiers, and live ground signals.

Rankings, watchlists and briefing packs

A ranking is only as good as the priorities behind it. This page makes those priorities explicit and lets you change them — the order on screen always shows the weights that produced it.

Build a ranking from your own priorities EARLIER ANALYSIS

You set the weights. The system supplies none. Change a weight and the order changes. This is a ranking under stated assumptions, not a prediction and not a target list.

Ranked by

CAMPAIGN PLANNING TOOL · M4.7

Campaign Target-List Planner

Capacity-bounded campaign stops ranked by strategic leverage across close seats.

Campaign Stops: 9 (of 15 pool districts)

Remaining Pool Districts (6)

Saved lists

Pin constituencies on the map, name the group, and it is kept on this machine.

Name this list

Briefing packs

Printable A4 briefs. Use your browser's “Save as PDF” in the print dialogue.

How regions differ inside themselves

Level

This is regional health and internal mix — not a regional forecast. A regional vote share here is total party votes divided by total valid votes, never an average of constituency percentages. A strong regional average with a wide spread means a divided region, not a uniform one. Which way a region swings does not carry over to the next election (r = −0.21 by district, −0.24 by region), so these figures must not be projected forward. Select any row to zoom the map to it.

Chief Campaign Strategist & Election Analyst (UP 2027)

Mission 200+ seat targeting, announced candidates, and the media narrative room.

How to read this — and where it stops

Everything that could mislead a reader is written down here rather than left implicit.